Rick Versteeg
Original post at 1st July 2020 https://tradersworld.com/issue77.pdf
Would you like to know the trend of NEXT YEAR in
advance?
Of course you would! This
is exactly the sort of holy grail investors have been looking for and it seems
only GANN succeeded. DeLorean indicator shows if the next day or month or year
is positive, negative or neutral in direction. Really fascinating to calculate
the energy for the future using our
physics model. The longer term time patterns have been calculated since 2013
and never change. Read on if you like to know what the 2nd half of
2020 will bring.
In the previous issue of Tradersworld, we had
the following important news.
The major indices just witnessed their all-time highs, so no major top yet to
be expected. Except for the forecast we already made in December 2019!
Quote from last Tradersworld:
“ This year will probably remembered as a year of cross points in future history books. The end of last year we have buried a time capsule, predicting global economy and markets longer term, which has been opened for our customers and will be dug up next year. What does it say? To give a peek behind the curtain, there is a point in time where crisis is just around the corner. So, time to wake up or even better, don’t sleep. There is some bad news culminating and markets do not yet have discounted this (as of February 20, 2020) Recession, crisis, rising interest rates, capital flight and probably Europe in trouble. We have already seen a pandemic developing as well as Brexit, that could lead to more hostility. Even more, other countries could follow the example set by the UK and no longer accept the tyranny of Brussels, dictated by France and Germany. France will have elections in March, which could be the beginning of the downfall of president Macron. Also the end of time for Merkel of Germany is near. Even more important, US presidential elections are coming. The question is not IF but WHEN trouble will happen. That is why we developed our time model.”
As a result of our forecast, investors / traders sold in time avoiding deep losses and risk.
DeLorean Long Term forecast
Every year, before the year
starts we make a forecast of the major
trends of that year. As we did in December 2019 for the year 2020. Most
important prediction for readers is the BEAR MARKET. Already in the first half
year of 2020 many forecasts became reality. “Trouble pops up like an infection”,
it happened literally.
– severe recession
– correction minimally from minus 20 to 30 % to begin with
– global crisis , (trade) war, terrorism and alike. Global
means trouble that travels around the world like an epidemy. As we see now not
only Corona hit the world but also recession, protests and violence.
Below you see an excerpt of what we have written :
Europe is in crisis and in danger of falling apart, for which reason they try to expand budgets dramatically so member states can no longer quit the union easily. After the departure of UK, negotiations going nowhere with EU. In fact signs are that EU is losing control. What will happen there in the next half year? Will it calm down or not?
With regard to the USA
we have witnessed widening of the rift in the country between democrats and
republicans as well as black and white. Additionally, violence is increasing or
even anarchistic tendencies rising. What will happen if the madness of crowds
will hit the streets in full force? Is it foreplay now for something worse or will
it calm down in the 2nd half year?
Very important to know and to be prepared.
Will there be a quick V shaped recovery like some forecast or does it
take much longer? Is there anything positive to forecast for the next year in
view of the hit our economy has taken as a result of Corona and subsequent
lockdown?
We will give you a sneak peek. It is never the end of the world, but when the
stock markets decline again, it will feel like it. Recovery of the SPX from the
low in march and other stock markets is about to be complete now (as of June 15th
2020). So markets will have another leg down. Interested to know when and how
to avoid stocks, take a look at our 2020 forecast. Don’t wait too long, it can
start to decline anytime. Additionally it would be interesting to know if the
year 2021 will deepen a bear market or start a new bull market.
Please take a look at our analysis back
in 2017. At the very end of the picture, in the year 2019, you see the
green indicator declining dramatically. So actually, without anybody spotting
it, we already forecasted the beginning of 2020 some 3 years ago, see
screenshot. As explained many times before, this is a quantitative approach
using mathematics and physics. Think of it as a sort of quantum mechanics that we have modelled to
calculate all changes in energy force for the past and future. If the indicator
is positive (above zero) the mood is positive or euphoric and vice versa, below
zero the mood is negative or even panic.
Indicators have been developed for different time frames, for portfolio managers, position traders and day traders. In the long term indicator, as displayed in the above screenshot, the patterns in the green indicator unveil the future if you know what to look for. It is the pattern, how it looks (pattern matching quantitatively) and the time waves it includes. Looking for a bull market? Search where green line is climbing and makes 2 tops. Bear market or minor corrections? Where the green line declines (strongly) and stays low for a while.
Our yearly forecast is very important to portfolio managers, since they will show you high probability outcome for the larger trends. Not only for markets but also for society and economy as a whole. Therefore the recent economic trends will be developing in general where the larger vested interests are affected. The same goes for crisis and social disruption that spreads like an infection. Also the mindset of politicians in general will be more or less in line and all of them will be a member of the herd. Corona, not coming close to become a dramatic world extinction event by far. Nevertheless it caused a panic, with unmatched lockdown measures and damage to economy because of fear and being part of the herd. Exactly as we experience in every day markets.
Previous years forecasts
For a selective group of customers we made available forecast in previous
years, We will show you in one chart the main outcome. As said one chart tells
more than 1000 words. This is exactly what you are buying newsletters for to
know in advance the big picture of the markets.
You can imagine with a little experience that to know the future is priceless information. The main contribution to the (out)performance of your investments is the asset allocation. Were you invested when the bull market took off? Even more important in my view is to avoid bear markets. All forecasts have been fulfilled in the last years. Now that the beginning of 2020 also was a spot on forecast too, there is still a very important 2nd half around the corner.
BE PEPARED- for a relative small price.
Time Fractals
You see several indicators displayed which are fractal in itself as well as together. We have a larger DeLorean trends indicator and a smaller trends. Applying a top down approach the green indicator gives the general trend. The smaller trends indicator can override the larger when really strong, like Apr-May and July-Sept, during the time the green line was declining. No large correction happened.
On the other hand, when the DeLorean smaller trends indicator confirms the green line indicator, corrections become more sever and/or take more time.
So, before it happens, in the empty chart the periods of down and up markets are indicated. Use a Moving Average to get confirmation.
The red bars are time pattern clusters that point out larger reversals, even very important tops and bottoms, like in 2020.
In 2018 a pattern began – high
plateau for around 1 year- that is a lookalike
of 2002-2003, causing its first crisis beginning 2019 just like 2001. There
are many more of these examples in 100 years Dow which caused epidemics and
global crisis
This same pattern ended its last wave in beginning 2020, causing a major bear market. In the first screenshot above- TW article 2017- we already showed the indicator and it has never changed. So we knew already.
2017-
forecast
2018-forecast
2019-forecast
2020- forecast
As said we knew for a long time that the green line indicator would start
declining quickly beginning 2020. Therefore we alerted our contacts of the
danger ahead within a time band of 1- 3 months and getting them prepared to
sell IN TIME.
Now it really begins again. It is very important for your performance (and
peace of mind) to know what is coming from the strong recovery the markets have
shown since March. In view of volatility, markets will experience strong moves.
Also the US president elections are coming. Because the short term indicator is
red after election day, the mainstream media will not be pleased with the
outcome.
Mathematically and statistically matching
patterns
The patterns at work in 2020
(and beyond!) have been (re)searched using our proprietary software and matched
with several very hectic periods in our history from 1900. For example there
was a very high correlation with the time patterns in 1930-1931 for which
reason we forecasted a severe recession. Even better, or worse, longer term the
pattern matches very good with another period! This pattern has been shown in
yellow in the chart above and will be unlocked for customers DeLorean Long
term. As you can see its history until now has a very high correlation with current
markets. First a strong bull market, next a crash and strong recovery, where we are now. We expect the price
pattern in our future to continue to look like the pattern in the past, which
is valuable information.
Every Investor and trader can buy or sell a market for a longer ride using our longer term analysis. Contrary to day trading and timing it is more simple and less hectic. Short term trends are available as well, even for every day, just try it…
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